tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3807 at 13:22, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3807 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 13:22 ICT 15:15 9% 2% 0.5% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → ICT 12:32DL 828 7h 12m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 3h 01m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 6h 42m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 38m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128 7h 15m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 08m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12UA 4809 · flown by SkyWest 5h 12m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30AA 1395 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → ICT 10:55AA 4142 · flown by Envoy 5h 01m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 3h 08m Denver DEN 17:56 → ICT 20:38UA 1788 7h 02m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:28 → DFW 13:04AA 2220 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:20 → ICT 15:51AA 2304 5h 23m 94% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON