tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Jackson on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 1h 10m Denver DEN 08:04 → JAC 09:43UA 5730 · flown by SkyWest 4h 58m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 05m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 6h 12m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 15:39 → JAC 16:47DL 509 5h 18m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 34m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 7h 20m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 19m Chicago ORD 09:03 → JAC 11:19UA 2176 6h 19m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:10 → JAC 20:04DL 315 8h 19m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 1h 32m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 5h 17m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON