Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2392 at 12:57, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2392 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:57	JAX 16:54	9%	3%	1.4%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994	7h 27m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 13:57 → JAX 15:09DL 2990	5h 43m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	7h 25m	100%	85%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041	3h 11m Denver	DEN 10:05 → JAX 15:39UA 1451	8h 54m	100%	85%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → JAX 14:14UA 1113	7h 14m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:51 → JAX 19:13DL 2189	7h 41m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → JAX 21:13DL 2265	7h 28m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	3h 16m New York	JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035	8h 49m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON