Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3077 MSP 05:26 → MDW 07:05 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4330 MSP 19:02 → MDW 20:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3077 Southwest	MSP 05:26	MDW 07:05	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3078 Southwest	MSP 10:43	MDW 12:22	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2878 Southwest	MSP 12:23	MDW 14:03	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3080 Southwest	MSP 16:07	MDW 17:48	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4330 Southwest	MSP 19:02	MDW 20:42	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4712 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 06:55	MDW 08:37	16%	9%	0.0%	84%
DL 4820 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 11:30	MDW 13:09	38%	15%	3.6%	62%
DL 4714 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 16:38	MDW 18:18	41%	23%	0.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON