Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3989 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 09:10	MEM 11:28	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 4063 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 15:45	MEM 17:52	11%	4%	0.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	7h 12m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → MEM 14:15DL 733	7h 15m	99%	88%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041	3h 58m Denver	DEN 10:52 → MEM 14:18UA 2789	8h 33m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700	7h 04m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	6h 35m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	3h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515	9h 30m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020	7h 49m	99%	85%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 39m Charlotte	CLT 13:39 → MEM 14:33AA 2852	8h 14m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON