Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 561 MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OO 3821 MSP 17:01 → MKE 18:25 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 561 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	MKE 11:17	7%	2%	0.5%	80%
OO 3804 SkyWest	MSP 07:55	MKE 09:17	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:54	MKE 15:09	9%	3%	0.5%	83%
OO 3848 SkyWest	MSP 18:09	MKE 19:33	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3821 SkyWest	MSP 17:01	MKE 18:25	12%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON