Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 362 at 12:45, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 362 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	MSO 14:38	10%	4%	0.4%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	93%	88%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → MSO 11:28UA 2847	6h 28m	97%	84%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 07m Denver	DEN 11:28 → MSO 13:38UA 2357	5h 33m	94%	81%
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon	8h 59m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON