tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2695 at 12:45, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2695 Delta Flight history → MSP 12:45 MSY 15:25 10% 2% 0.7% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 17m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 17m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 31m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 2h 56m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 7h 54m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678 7h 52m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 3h 21m Chicago ORD 11:05 → MSY 13:40UA 1532 7h 40m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:25 → MSY 17:23UA 250 8h 18m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450 7h 43m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON