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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3791 at 18:10, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3791 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 18:10 OKC 20:15 13% 5% 0.6% 78%
DL 5142 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MSP 09:05 OKC 11:16 25% 9% 0.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 6h 52m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 1h 06m Denver DEN 08:00 → OKC 10:49UA 6029 · flown by SkyWest 5h 04m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 7h 56m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:05 → OKC 20:15DL 2784 7h 30m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 03m Denver DEN 13:24 → OKC 16:13UA 1656 7h 08m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30AA 1395 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → OKC 12:07AA 3099 6h 13m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 2h 43m Denver DEN 17:31 → OKC 20:11UA 1184 6h 35m 99% 79%
FrontierDetails → MSP 13:16 → DEN 14:30F9 3199 2h 25m Denver DEN 16:55 → OKC 19:50F9 1928 6h 34m 97% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON