Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 307 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 307 MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest MQ 4228 MSP 18:02 → ORD 19:32 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 307 United Flight history →	MSP 06:00	ORD 07:44	5%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 1011 American	MSP 06:09	ORD 07:48	7%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 1544 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	ORD 08:30	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
UA 2773 United	MSP 08:04	ORD 09:42	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSP 10:31	ORD 12:16	11%	4%	0.9%	89%
UA 2000 United	MSP 09:45	ORD 11:23	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:00	ORD 11:32	13%	3%	0.7%	72%
UA 576 United Flight history →	MSP 11:32	ORD 13:15	15%	5%	0.6%	73%
AA 2472 American	MSP 19:55	ORD 21:46	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:25	ORD 15:05	16%	7%	0.8%	71%
MQ 3551 Envoy	MSP 10:55	ORD 12:24	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2790 United	MSP 13:12	ORD 14:49	19%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2448 American	MSP 14:25	ORD 16:04	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 424 United	MSP 16:55	ORD 18:39	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:20	ORD 16:59	21%	6%	0.8%	57%
DL 2130 Delta Flight history →	MSP 17:45	ORD 19:30	22%	9%	0.8%	61%
UA 1531 United Flight history →	MSP 15:16	ORD 16:58	22%	7%	0.7%	55%
UA 1237 United Flight history →	MSP 18:54	ORD 20:32	26%	8%	0.7%	49%
MQ 4228 Envoy	MSP 18:02	ORD 19:32	26%	9%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON