Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5518 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 19:55	ORF 23:47	36%	11%	1.2%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925	7h 56m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 10:03 → ORF 11:58DL 3066	4h 54m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	6h 24m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984	7h 57m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346	7h 22m	99%	84%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	3h 10m Denver	DEN 17:58 → ORF 23:33UA 680	8h 57m	99%	81%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 57m Charlotte	CLT 13:57 → ORF 15:23AA 1323	8h 04m	99%	81%
American Details →	MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30AA 1395	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:30 → ORF 14:48AA 2282	7h 54m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON