Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2415 MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 715 MSP 19:02 → PDX 20:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2415 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	PDX 10:41	5%	1%	0.4%	89%
DL 1661 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:59	PDX 12:41	6%	2%	0.4%	86%
DL 2008 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:58	PDX 17:35	7%	2%	0.4%	81%
DL 2151 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:34	PDX 20:15	9%	2%	0.4%	79%
AS 715 Alaska	MSP 19:02	PDX 20:46	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON