Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2688 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2688 MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3294 MSP 15:55 → PHL 19:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2688 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	PHL 10:44	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2679 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:09	PHL 14:43	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 1481 American	MSP 06:01	PHL 09:50	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 2594 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:25	PHL 18:04	11%	4%	0.6%	76%
OH 5347 PSA	MSP 12:13	PHL 15:56	11%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 3294 American Flight history →	MSP 15:55	PHL 19:51	17%	6%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON