Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1047 MSP 07:26 → PHX 08:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2297 MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1047 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:26	PHX 08:37	8%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:28	PHX 10:43	9%	2%	0.5%	77%
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:32	PHX 12:46	11%	2%	0.5%	81%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:54	PHX 16:09	12%	3%	0.5%	82%
AA 408 American Flight history →	MSP 14:39	PHX 16:07	14%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 2297 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:48	PHX 20:06	16%	4%	0.5%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON