tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 762 at 18:25, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 762 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:25 PSC 19:45 18% 5% 0.4% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pasco is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 1h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest 6h 09m 97% 88%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 16:57 → SEA 18:52AS 510 3h 52m Seattle SEA 22:44 → PSC 23:43AS 2403 · flown by Horizon 8h 46m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 48m Salt Lake City SLC 10:47 → PSC 11:38DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest 5h 28m 86% 80%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 54m Seattle SEA 08:52 → PSC 09:53AS 2195 · flown by Horizon 5h 50m 89% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868 2h 41m Seattle SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest 7h 49m 99% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON