Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 06:55, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1766 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	PWM 10:42	7%	2%	0.5%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	4h 51m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 23m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821	6h 01m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041	3h 06m Denver	DEN 10:00 → PWM 15:55UA 372	9h 10m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	6h 40m	98%	85%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 52m Charlotte	CLT 13:52 → PWM 16:31AA 1747	9h 12m	99%	82%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → PWM 14:31UA 2804	7h 31m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	2h 06m New York	JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	6h 24m	98%	73%
American Details →	MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	50m Chicago	ORD 13:06 → PWM 16:41AA 4741 · flown by Republic	5h 10m	86%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor	5h 42m	48%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON