Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2783 MSP 07:00 → RDU 10:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2699 MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2783 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	RDU 10:31	6%	1%	0.5%	90%
DL 2521 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:21	RDU 13:51	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 2699 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:20	RDU 17:51	12%	3%	0.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON