tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5530 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MSP 20:16 RIC 23:58 30% 11% 0.7% 70%
DL 5063 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MSP 10:00 RIC 13:35 31% 25% 0.0% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:32 → RIC 14:15DL 3152 7h 55m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433 2h 43m Detroit DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:05DL 3073 6h 05m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 6h 57m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 2h 57m Denver DEN 09:51 → RIC 15:29UA 724 8h 44m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 33m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 7h 36m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348 7h 21m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 18:33 → RIC 20:16DL 1263 6h 31m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30AA 1395 1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:17 → RIC 14:23AA 1915 7h 29m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON