Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2400 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	RSW 13:27	11%	2%	0.8%	86%
DL 2219 Delta	MSP 12:52	RSW 17:19	14%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	5h 51m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	6h 35m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041	2h 41m Denver	DEN 09:35 → RSW 15:22UA 2601	8h 37m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	7h 18m	100%	85%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 09:02 → RSW 13:01UA 1036	6h 01m	98%	83%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	1h 26m Denver	DEN 16:14 → RSW 22:13UA 572	7h 37m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 46m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	7h 22m	99%	81%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	2h 06m Charlotte	CLT 12:06 → RSW 14:14AA 2018	6h 55m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON