Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2121 MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 2145 MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:36 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2121 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:51	SAN 10:38	12%	2%	0.5%	82%
DL 2125 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:38	SAN 13:24	13%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 2145 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:50	SAN 20:36	18%	4%	0.6%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041	49m Denver	DEN 07:43 → SAN 09:05UA 2309	5h 20m	93%	79%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	54m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	5h 36m	89%	68%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	48m Los Angeles	LAX 14:11 → SAN 15:08DL 4001 · flown by SkyWest	5h 38m	82%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON