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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2574 at 12:45, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2574 Delta Flight history → MSP 12:45 SAV 16:23 10% 2% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Savannah is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → SAV 16:14DL 3014 6h 48m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:32 → SAV 14:38DL 1067 6h 38m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 20:06 → SAV 21:17DL 2425 7h 32m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 16:50 → SAV 18:02DL 3112 6h 30m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 2h 50m Denver DEN 09:44 → SAV 15:07UA 361 8h 22m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 3h 13m Chicago ORD 10:57 → SAV 14:15UA 1612 7h 15m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30AA 1395 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → SAV 14:25AA 2048 7h 31m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576 3h 45m Chicago ORD 17:00 → SAV 20:19UA 1191 7h 47m 98% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON