Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 552 MSP 17:18 → SFO 19:28 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest DL 2809 MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 552 United Flight history →	MSP 17:18	SFO 19:28	15%	7%	0.6%	71%
OO 4801 SkyWest	MSP 07:20	SFO 09:53	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 2074 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	SFO 13:09	17%	3%	0.4%	70%
DL 756 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:07	SFO 17:12	18%	5%	0.4%	74%
DL 2078 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:24	SFO 11:32	19%	4%	0.4%	59%
DL 2809 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:50	SFO 20:57	21%	7%	0.4%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	5h 53m	95%	72%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 00m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	5h 59m	92%	70%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041	46m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	5h 33m	88%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON