Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:29, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2383 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	SJC 12:01	10%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 2087 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:30	SJC 20:35	15%	4%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	3h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	7h 57m	100%	91%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041	1h 06m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SJC 09:40UA 2031	5h 55m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 25m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00DL 2110	3h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	9h 06m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	10h 00m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	10h 20m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	49m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 10m	95%	86%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 09:41 → SJC 12:25UA 307	8h 25m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON