Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1701 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:24	SMF 12:09	10%	2%	0.4%	94%
DL 574 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:45	SMF 20:35	18%	4%	0.4%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041	1h 06m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	5h 50m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 06m	99%	90%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145	7h 51m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	9h 34m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 16:38 → SMF 18:11DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	4h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest	9h 47m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585	7h 47m	100%	85%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	3h 14m Denver	DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662	8h 05m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON