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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2081 Delta Flight history → MSP 11:00 SNA 12:54 15% 4% 0.6% 73%
DL 2107 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:28 SNA 20:20 20% 5% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 7h 52m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 1h 26m Denver DEN 16:14 → SNA 17:54UA 1497 6h 18m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30AA 1395 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465 9h 54m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 11m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 10h 28m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 46m Denver DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666 5h 22m 88% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 51m Houston IAH 12:21 → SNA 14:06UA 1533 8h 31m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:28 → DFW 13:04AA 2220 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:18 → SNA 17:46AA 3223 9h 18m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON