Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3082 MSP 08:01 → STL 09:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3083 MSP 17:36 → STL 19:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3082 Southwest	MSP 08:01	STL 09:40	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1289 Delta	MSP 09:05	STL 10:43	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1224 Delta	MSP 15:11	STL 16:50	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3811 SkyWest	MSP 13:32	STL 15:17	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3083 Southwest	MSP 17:36	STL 19:15	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 5286 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 07:00	STL 08:42	28%	14%	0.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON