tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Syracuse on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Syracuse is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → SYR 14:48DL 2991 8h 28m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 3h 01m Denver DEN 09:55 → SYR 15:27UA 211 8h 42m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690 8h 33m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894 3h 50m Charlotte CLT 13:50 → SYR 15:54AA 1950 8h 35m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969 3h 55m New York JFK 14:34 → SYR 16:11DL 5328 · flown by Endeavor 8h 16m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 3h 22m Denver DEN 18:10 → SYR 23:44UA 2350 9h 08m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → MSP 15:55 → PHL 19:51AA 3294 2h 29m Philadelphia PHL 22:20 → SYR 23:45AA 6103 · flown by Piedmont 6h 50m 92% 67%
UnitedDetails → MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531 1h 11m Chicago ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09UA 2481 4h 53m 85% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor 47m New York JFK 22:56 → SYR 00:43 +1DL 5371 · flown by Endeavor 5h 33m 44% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON