Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 09m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	7h 00m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170	7h 35m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	5h 57m	98%	88%
American Details →	MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30AA 1395	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	5h 34m	95%	78%
American Details →	MSP 10:28 → DFW 13:04AA 2220	3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673	8h 10m	99%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON