tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3761 SkyWest MSP 09:13 XNA 11:14 9% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 3751 SkyWest MSP 14:21 XNA 16:22 11% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 3h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 13:31 → XNA 17:22DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 9h 12m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771 7h 33m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 2h 56m Denver DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 09m Denver DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 19:35 → XNA 20:31DL 1710 7h 46m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 3h 02m Denver DEN 17:50 → XNA 20:48UA 1351 7h 12m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:28 → DFW 13:04AA 2220 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy 4h 59m 91% 79%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30AA 1395 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:38 → XNA 11:05AA 2025 5h 11m 96% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON