Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1534 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 1534 MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2052 MSY 17:08 → ATL 19:59 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1534 Delta Flight history →	MSY 06:20	ATL 08:57	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1547 Delta Flight history →	MSY 05:20	ATL 07:51	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2522 Delta Flight history →	MSY 07:28	ATL 10:00	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 3128 Delta Flight history →	MSY 09:13	ATL 11:43	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	MSY 10:34	ATL 13:05	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	MSY 12:42	ATL 15:16	10%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	MSY 15:22	ATL 18:01	10%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 678 Delta	MSY 19:30	ATL 22:03	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:01	ATL 19:34	14%	4%	0.6%	84%
WN 3445 Southwest	MSY 16:51	ATL 19:34	22%	6%	0.5%	no record
F9 2052 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:08	ATL 19:59	35%	11%	1.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON