Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 558 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 558 MSY 06:56 → BNA 08:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2352 MSY 17:31 → BNA 19:16 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 558 Southwest	MSY 06:56	BNA 08:42	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3090 Southwest	MSY 08:01	BNA 09:47	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2761 Southwest	MSY 10:42	BNA 12:29	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 540 Southwest	MSY 12:57	BNA 14:43	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3093 Southwest	MSY 14:32	BNA 16:17	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2352 Southwest	MSY 17:31	BNA 19:16	24%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON