Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:34, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Boston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1453 Delta	MSY 14:57	BOS 19:25	33%	13%	0.7%	no record
B6 400 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 17:01	BOS 21:36	41%	21%	0.8%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 25m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	6h 27m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:22 → BOS 15:00DL 1293	6h 32m	99%	81%
United Details →	MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124	1h 31m Houston	IAH 09:50 → BOS 14:48UA 2393	6h 48m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	7h 18m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:57 → BOS 22:35DL 457	6h 13m	97%	77%
American Details →	MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → BOS 13:37AA 1206	6h 47m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	6h 31m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON