Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1086 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1086 MSY 05:31 → BWI 09:29 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3097 MSY 18:02 → BWI 22:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1086 Southwest	MSY 05:31	BWI 09:29	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2144 Southwest	MSY 13:56	BWI 17:54	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3097 Southwest	MSY 18:02	BWI 22:01	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	4h 27m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424	57m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	4h 19m	91%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON