Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 424 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 424 MSY 08:26 → CLT 11:37 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2615 MSY 17:59 → CLT 21:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 424 American Flight history →	MSY 08:26	CLT 11:37	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 2287 American Flight history →	MSY 10:26	CLT 13:40	13%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 2997 American	MSY 14:25	CLT 17:35	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	MSY 17:59	CLT 21:11	22%	6%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON