Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3103 at 08:56 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 3103 MSY 08:56 → DCA 12:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3528 MSY 17:01 → DCA 20:48 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3103 Southwest	MSY 08:56	DCA 12:40	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2586 American	MSY 13:58	DCA 17:52	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
OH 5274 PSA	MSY 10:07	DCA 13:50	21%	7%	1.6%	no record
AA 1788 American Flight history →	MSY 17:21	DCA 21:17	26%	11%	0.9%	61%
WN 3528 Southwest	MSY 17:01	DCA 20:48	32%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON