Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3105 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3105 MSY 05:51 → DEN 07:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3108 MSY 17:26 → DEN 19:12 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3105 Southwest	MSY 05:51	DEN 07:40	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3825 Southwest	MSY 08:46	DEN 10:34	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1376 United Flight history →	MSY 08:04	DEN 10:05	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 785 United	MSY 14:34	DEN 16:25	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2216 United Flight history →	MSY 18:01	DEN 19:45	18%	4%	0.6%	84%
F9 4561 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 10:45	DEN 12:44	20%	4%	1.0%	74%
WN 4184 Southwest	MSY 13:51	DEN 15:38	21%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3108 Southwest	MSY 17:26	DEN 19:12	30%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON