Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 468 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 468 MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 4993 MSY 17:21 → DFW 19:11 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 468 American Flight history →	MSY 05:50	DFW 07:40	9%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 1470 American Flight history →	MSY 07:57	DFW 09:50	14%	4%	0.9%	77%
AA 2157 American Flight history →	MSY 09:54	DFW 11:42	14%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 1684 American	MSY 11:23	DFW 13:11	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1650 American	MSY 12:18	DFW 14:06	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2627 American	MSY 15:55	DFW 17:49	23%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2291 American Flight history →	MSY 19:39	DFW 21:26	27%	9%	1.2%	62%
AA 1811 American	MSY 18:28	DFW 20:15	27%	9%	1.1%	no record
F9 4993 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:21	DFW 19:11	33%	9%	1.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON