Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2790 at 11:19, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2790 Delta Flight history →	MSY 11:19	DTW 14:48	9%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 36m	100%	88%
United Details →	MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105	2h 46m Houston	IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa	7h 06m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	7h 14m	100%	86%
United Details →	MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124	1h 26m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	5h 42m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	7h 14m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	6h 31m	98%	83%
United Details →	MSY 14:19 → ORD 16:58UA 1301	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 20:12 → DTW 22:35UA 768	7h 16m	98%	78%
American Details →	MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:17 → DTW 15:07AA 690	8h 17m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON