Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 1822 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day B6 1822 MSY 07:45 → FLL 10:42 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 2722 MSY 13:39 → FLL 16:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1822 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 07:45	FLL 10:42	14%	5%	1.1%	84%
WN 1092 Southwest	MSY 18:26	FLL 21:30	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
B6 2722 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 13:39	FLL 16:45	25%	11%	1.2%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON