tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1392 United Flight history → MSY 08:00 IAD 11:33 7% 2% 0.6% 93%
UA 2497 United Flight history → MSY 12:17 IAD 15:50 9% 3% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965 6h 46m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 6h 41m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:19 → ORD 16:58UA 1301 3h 16m Chicago ORD 20:14 → IAD 23:15UA 304 7h 56m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 6h 56m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 54m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 8h 30m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 33m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 35m Houston IAH 14:47 → IAD 18:58UA 1178 8h 05m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → IAD 14:40AA 524 7h 50m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON