Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5365 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day OO 5365 MSY 05:25 → IAH 07:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2119 MSY 17:28 → IAH 18:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5365 SkyWest	MSY 05:25	IAH 07:02	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2105 United Flight history →	MSY 09:53	IAH 11:12	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1532 United Flight history →	MSY 15:40	IAH 17:09	11%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	MSY 07:00	IAH 08:19	12%	3%	0.7%	73%
UA 2253 United Flight history →	MSY 12:07	IAH 13:26	12%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 2296 United Flight history →	MSY 14:21	IAH 15:40	14%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 2119 United	MSY 17:28	IAH 18:57	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 6273 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MSY 19:13	IAH 20:40	12%	6%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON