Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2085 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2085 MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2096 MSY 17:20 → LAX 19:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2085 Delta Flight history →	MSY 08:03	LAX 10:00	9%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 872 Delta	MSY 14:49	LAX 16:48	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2096 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:20	LAX 19:18	19%	4%	0.5%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296	51m Houston	IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743	5h 47m	80%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON