tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4801 at 18:01, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4801 Southwest MSY 18:01 MCI 20:11 19% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 51m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747 5h 58m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 01m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 8h 18m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 46m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 15m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 6h 54m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 17m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:52DL 3023 6h 30m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON