Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3123 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3123 MSY 05:01 → MCO 07:53 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3126 MSY 16:26 → MCO 19:18 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3123 Southwest	MSY 05:01	MCO 07:53	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2218 Southwest	MSY 06:36	MCO 09:29	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3147 Southwest	MSY 10:31	MCO 13:23	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2747 Southwest	MSY 19:06	MCO 21:58	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3126 Southwest	MSY 16:26	MCO 19:18	21%	6%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON