Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 867 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 867 MSY 05:57 → MIA 09:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1680 MSY 18:57 → MIA 22:06 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 867 American Flight history →	MSY 05:57	MIA 09:18	8%	3%	1.0%	92%
AA 2566 American	MSY 10:03	MIA 13:12	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 1680 American	MSY 18:57	MIA 22:06	31%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON