Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3229 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3229 MSY 06:01 → ORD 08:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5375 MSY 17:37 → ORD 20:17 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3229 American	MSY 06:01	ORD 08:55	9%	4%	1.5%	no record
UA 2844 United	MSY 07:01	ORD 09:48	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1677 United Flight history →	MSY 10:31	ORD 13:11	18%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 4040 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSY 11:34	ORD 14:07	23%	5%	1.1%	81%
UA 1301 United Flight history →	MSY 14:19	ORD 16:58	26%	8%	0.7%	66%
OO 5375 SkyWest	MSY 17:37	ORD 20:17	31%	13%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON