tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 12:07, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1864 Southwest MSY 06:01 PHX 07:30 4% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085 3h 46m Los Angeles LAX 13:46 → PHX 15:21DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest 9h 18m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 43m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905 7h 16m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 8h 50m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 20:36 → PHX 21:34DL 929 8h 12m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26UA 2253 3h 35m Houston IAH 17:01 → PHX 18:08UA 1478 8h 01m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 1h 21m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 5h 34m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 03m Houston IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:13UA 1798 7h 20m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSY 10:31 → ORD 13:11UA 1677 46m Chicago ORD 13:57 → PHX 15:43UA 1706 7h 12m 64% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON