tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3279 Southwest MSY 09:01 SAN 10:55 17% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843 8h 19m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 48m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924 10h 02m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 41m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 8h 21m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 8h 51m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:01 → SAN 19:37DL 712 8h 55m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790 1h 47m Detroit DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369 8h 55m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 08m Houston IAH 14:20 → SAN 15:50UA 1114 7h 57m 99% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON