tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1513 at 14:21, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1513 Southwest MSY 14:21 SAT 16:02 11% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 18m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 5h 57m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 33m Houston IAH 14:45 → SAT 15:56UA 2030 6h 03m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 1h 16m Houston IAH 09:35 → SAT 10:47UA 1371 3h 47m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 6h 37m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:52 → SAT 22:19DL 1222 6h 57m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 17:22 → SAT 18:50DL 2893 6h 08m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:35 → SAT 11:55AA 413 6h 05m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON