tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1973 United Flight history → MSY 08:05 SFO 10:38 16% 5% 0.6% 75%
UA 2421 United MSY 14:50 SFO 17:37 19% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 22m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392 3h 18m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 38m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 13m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26UA 2253 3h 49m Houston IAH 17:15 → SFO 19:28UA 1134 9h 21m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSY 15:40 → IAH 17:09UA 1532 2h 40m Houston IAH 19:49 → SFO 22:12UA 1202 8h 32m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 9h 15m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823 10h 18m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 2497 2h 47m Dulles IAD 18:37 → SFO 21:28UA 2832 11h 11m 98% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON